42 Days

42 - The number of days that the Ugandan President has decided to reimpose a significant lockdown for Uganda because of a “resurgence” of COVID. The announcement came last week and portions of the lockdown started on Monday, June 7th.

Like all of us, Ugandans are no strangers to lockdowns. In fact, Uganda dealt with more severe restrictions for a longer period of time than many Americans.

In March 2020, President Museveni essentially closed down the country, purportedly to reduce COVID transmission.

All transport in or out of Uganda ceased except limited truck traffic bringing goods to and from the land-locked nation. The airport was completely closed until October 1. At first, people were completely confined to their homes but after about 2 months, a 5 PM to 7 AM curfew was imposed. Almost all offices and schools were closed. Vehicle movement was restricted unless you had a special government-issued vehicle placard.

Ordinary Ugandans could go out to buy food and necessary goods or for “exercise.” However, “exercise” was narrowly defined – walking. If you were seen by the police outside doing more vigorous exercise (let’s say you were jogging, for example) you would be stopped and interrogated. In Uganda, apparently, the transmissibility of COVID depended on the velocity of the potentially infected person.

There were no bodas on the roads. The urban hawkers who make a couple of dollars a day selling fruit or household goods disappeared. All markets except for food were shuttered. Food markets were open but for very limited hours. The economy largely stopped. Workers were furloughed and incomes evaporated. With no formal government safety net, the majority of Ugandans who live “hand to mouth” began to fall into debt and hunger. Urban Ugandans began trickling back to their home villages to live with their extended families to try to eke out a living from their land. Those villages also provided some freedom of movement and life as government restrictions were enforced less stringently there.

Many of our friends have diplomatic status in Uganda which means they could move about more freely. Those folks would often become a lifeline, bringing groceries and supplies to neighbors who were more restricted

Scott and I dealt with a lockdown in the US. It was frustrating and inconvenient. But our experience was different than a typical Ugandan. We have a refrigerator and pantry full of food. We did not have to worry about water shutoffs or intermittent power cuts. We have credit cards, bank accounts and the means to pay for things other than cash handed to vendors. We have reliable wi-fi, smart phones and computers that allowed us to work, attend school (for Anna) and stay somewhat connected.

For Uganda, the lockdowns were more than inconvenient. They were devastating.

Beginning in September 2020, restrictions slowly eased. The curfew was modified to 9 PM to 5 AM. Restaurants reopened with limited seating. Most stores and malls reopened. Worshippers were allowed to meet in limited numbers and subject to distancing and mask rules. Vehicle traffic increased and life in Uganda restarted. Until this week.

Just to provide some perspective, roughly 48 million people live in Uganda. To date, 383 people have died from COVID. This last week, 20 additional victims of COVID passed. Also this last week, the total COVID positive tests jumped from 3,228 to 6,808. So the numbers are, unequivocally, increasing.

However, the overall numbers are still unbelievably low. The St. Phillips Health Center (Kampala hospital) posted, “Although every lost life is a tragedy, we need to keep in perspective that this number is still tiny compared to the thousands of deaths a day reported during similar outbreaks in other countries.” Most new positive cases are non-symptomatic younger people, which makes sense in a country where the average age is 16. There are still few hospitalizations.

By comparison, to date in 2021, over 4,000 people have died of malaria in Uganda. The vast majority of those victims are children. Malaria is a preventable and treatable disease. A vaccine has been in trials for years. But it has not received Emergency Use Authorization and no pharmaceutical companies are clamoring to make the vaccine for the developing world where malaria is a fact of life.

The new lockdowns have been met with some cynicism.

The prior lockdown occurred during a national election cycle. While many sitting members of parliament and, coincidentally, the President, could move about on “official” business (which looked a lot like political campaigning), their challengers could not hold rallies, travel or campaign because of COVID restrictions. Some candidates were even placed on house arrest for “safety” reasons. Those candidates turned to social media as a substitute to reach potential supporters. In response, the President simply turned off access to the internet and social media in the name of “security.” It was only when the election cycle began to wind down that COVID restrictions meaningfully eased. Many Ugandans view these new restrictions as a governmental power grab and fear that they will last much longer than 6 weeks.

There are also significant questions about the effectiveness and logic of these new measures. For example, tourists are almost completely exempt. While ordinary Ugandans cannot have more than 3 people in a private car (including the driver), tourist vehicles have no capacity restrictions. Churches and schools have been closed but hotels and restaurants remain open.

In Uganda since March, only about 600,000 people have been fully “jabbed” with the AstraZeneca vaccine, the only vaccine option. An additional 200,000 people are awaiting a second shot. Friends who tried to get the second dose this last week were turned away because there were not enough vaccines in Kampala. Unused doses earlier distributed to outlying provinces are being recalled before they spoil because they are not being administered. New vaccine supplies are not arriving because they generally come from India, where vaccine exports have stopped.

The Ugandan government is discussing getting vaccines from “their friends in China.” Every statistic we have seen is that the SinoVac jab is both ineffective and unsafe. We also met a number of employees at the Dubai airport in January who were required to get the Chinese vaccine to keep their jobs. In our 19 hours at the airport, every employee we talked to had either personal experience or had roommates or family members with very poor, and long-lasting reactions to this vaccine.

Even assuming a sufficient supply, Uganda is vaccinating 20,000 + people/week. At that rate, it will take Uganda almost 50 years to inoculate all of its citizens.

Our hearts break for Uganda.

While none of this story is really about us, many have asked, “How does this impact the Leists?”

Scott is just about to board his final flight back to Uganda. He’ll arrive in about 6 hours. He had been here for almost 3 weeks. He went back early to walk with the staff and eight visiting Pepperdine Law School Interns who are three weeks into an 8-week fellowship with the Ugandan Judiciary. I’m planning to return on June 22nd as scheduled. It may be a bit of a hassle to get back into the country, but at this point it looks like we will be able to get in and out without too much trouble.

In terms of the work, the U.S. interns are thankfully still able to travel to their various assignments with the Uganda Judiciary but this could change at any point. The new lockdown has curtailed many court operations so for Scott and his Ugandan team the already significant backlog of accused and incarcerated Ugandans waiting for justice or even to see a lawyer is likely to grow. Bottom-line, there will be even more work than before but likely less ability to do it.

In terms of life, we are not sure what to expect other than the concern expressed by our Ugandan friend Simon, who says, “we expect this to stay much longer than 42 days.”

As things return to “normal” in the U.S., we would welcome your prayers for Uganda, the Pepperdine crew and us as we travel back.